Blog
Notes and reflections on markets, investing, and the occasional mood.
July 2026's Volatility
I took a long trip back to China at the end of May and returned to the US on June 29th. I clearly remember that day — when I landed at Seattle airport, my mom's China stock market account had just hit an all-time high. But starting the very next day, the entire month turned into a bloodbath. As someone who practices technical analysis and believes charts can give signals at any point in time, I need to look back and figure out what I did wrong, or failed to do, to prevent the massive drawdown that wiped out a chunk of my first half-year gains. Mood clearly has a big impact on my analysis. Through the first half of the year, I was still dealing with occasional frustration at work, while at the same time, the launch of Claude Code made me feel almost omnipotent. That left me with a conflicting self-image: on one side, I feel incompetent, unable to make real changes in my job; on the other, with the power of AI and my own creative thinking, I feel like I can do anything. So after calming myself down, I did some mental and technical analysis again. We know that on smaller timeframes, the price action reflected in charts always carries more noise than signal, so I went back to testing with weekly K-charts and found them actually very useful for signaling peaks and bottoms. Through almost the whole month of June, or at least the second half of it, weekly charts for many technology and chip stocks gave clear signals — things like doji stars or large dropping candles on elevated volume. If you're not blind to it, you can catch these immediately and avoid at least half of the cruel drop. But in the long term, I still want to hold onto my conviction in AI and chip-related stocks with strong promise. That's why, starting yesterday morning (August 3rd), I loaded back into large positions in MU, TSM, and others. You don't want to get scared out of a long-term rising market just because of one month of bloodbath moves. Keep hope in your heart, always!
Knowledge vs. Action: The Real Battle in Investing
Keeping what you do aligned with what you know in investing is one of the hardest challenges investors face. While investing seems rational, in practice many people fail to act on their own understanding. The gap between knowledge and behavior is where most mistakes happen. The main reason is psychological. Investors may know that markets are volatile and that long-term discipline is key, yet still panic during downturns or chase rising prices. Fear and greed often override logic, leading to decisions that contradict basic principles like buying low and selling high. Constant market noise makes this even harder. News, opinions, and rapid price movements create pressure to act, even when doing nothing would be better. At the same time, cognitive biases—such as loss aversion and confirmation bias—distort judgment, often without the investor realizing it. Another challenge is the mismatch between long-term strategies and short-term emotions. Even strong investment theses can be abandoned after short periods of underperformance. Success comes from managing behavior, not just gaining knowledge. Structured processes, predefined rules, and self-awareness help investors stay disciplined. In the end, the greatest advantage in investing is not knowing more, but consistently acting on what you already know.